Viewing archive of Monday, 11 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2243Z from Region 3511 (S23W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 Dec) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 472 km/s at 10/2259Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1554Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1338 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 Dec, 14
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 Dec). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 126 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 120/122/122 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 010/010-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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