Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 November 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 15 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/2305Z from Region 3485 (S18W79). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 15/1800Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/1536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M15%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 119
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 120/118/116
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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