Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1400Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 19/0201Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/0555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 129 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 128/130/132 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 015/022-010/014-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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