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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 20/0500Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 378 km/s at 20/1208Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1743Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 126
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 124/124/122
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  010/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%35%25%

All times in UTC

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