Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0030Z from Region 3467 (N14W26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct,
23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 21/0338Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 21/0429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 21/0555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 123 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 122/120/118 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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