Viewing archive of Friday, 17 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1010Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 16/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 120 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-012/015-016/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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