Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period were two M1 events observed
at 18/0542Z and 18/1644Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov,
21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached an estimated peak of 315 km/s at 18/0288Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/1633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Nov, 20
Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 127 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 010/012-019/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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