Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/2234Z from Region 3490 (N18E69). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 19/0805Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at
19/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0411Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 140 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 019/020-007/010-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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