Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 23 October 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/1958Z from Region 3468 (S09W25). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 23/1747Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/2330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/1324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (26 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       23 Oct 122
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  009/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	10%	05%
Minor storm	05%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	25%	15%
Major-severe storm	20%	20%	15%

All times in UTC

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The density of the solar wind is moderate (21.71 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.01nT), the direction is North (6.33nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-79nT)

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