Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 October 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1450Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 24/1840Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 24/1759Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 Oct 121
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	15%
Minor storm	01%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	25%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	25%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.93nT), the direction is North (4.89nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-132nT)

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