Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
16/1354Z from Region 3514 (N05W82). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (17 Dec) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (18 Dec, 19
Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16/0036Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1913Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 16/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (19 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 149 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 145/140/138 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 025/032-014/018-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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