Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 24/0328Z from Region 3445 (S14E05). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 24/2000Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 24/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -27 nT at 24/2043Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 24/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1024 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27 Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton25%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 174
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 172/168/164
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  023/028-009/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%10%
Minor storm35%05%05%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm35%20%15%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/22M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024103.3 -49.2
Last 30 days114 -43.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M6.75
21998M3.34
32013M2.36
42013M1.97
52001M1.69
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks