Viewing archive of Monday, 25 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
25/0813Z from Region 3445 (S14W09). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 25/0445Z. Total IMF
reached 34 nT at 25/1008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 25/0046Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (28
Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 170 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 166/164/164 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 017/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 016/024-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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