Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2300Z from Region 3443 (N28W40). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 23/0034Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/1008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Sep,
25 Sep, 26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 173 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 175/172/168 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 018/022-013/015-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |