Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 18/1641Z. Total IMF reached 34
nT at 18/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
18/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (20 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (21 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 135 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 015/020-015/022-018/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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