Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/0351Z from Region 3500 (S18W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 01/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 01/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Dec), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (05 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 148 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 145/142/138 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 030/059 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/010-024/033-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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