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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1143Z from Region 3480 (S09E40). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1233Z. Total IMF reached 44 nT at 05/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -26 nT at 05/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 155
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 155/152/150
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  031/062
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  023/035-011/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm35%15%20%
Major-severe storm20%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%30%

All times in UTC

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