Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1143Z from Region 3480 (S09E40). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov,
08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1233Z. Total IMF
reached 44 nT at 05/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 05/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 155 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 155/152/150 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 031/062 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 023/035-011/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK
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