Viewing archive of Monday, 9 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1911Z from Region 3451 (N17W60). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/1632Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 166 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 156/156/150 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct NA/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-008/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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