Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/0707Z from Region 3423 (N16W44). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 12/1249Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 12/1350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 12/1419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (14 Sep, 15 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 154 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 160/155/152 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 020/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 015/016-012/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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