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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1039Z from Region 3561 (S14W0*). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2229Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 148
  Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/008-011/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

All times in UTC

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