Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1039Z from Region 3561 (S14W0*). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan,
30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/2229Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 148 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 007/008-011/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |