Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
08/1312Z from Region 3576 (S16E17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (09 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 661 km/s at 08/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (09 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 185 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 011/015-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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