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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
09/1314Z from Region 3575 (S37, L=178). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (10 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/0906Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 113 pfu at 09/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons are expected
to cross threshold on day one (10 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on
day two (11 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three
(12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 60% | 25% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 183 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 178/178/180 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/010-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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