Viewing archive of Monday, 12 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
12/0348Z from Region 3576 (S17W37). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14
Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 705 km/s at 12/0646Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
11/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2257Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 81 pfu at 12/1550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (13 Feb), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet levels on day three
(15 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (13 Feb),
have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (14 Feb) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 208 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 028/040-017/024-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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