Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
10/1213Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar,
13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 09/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 738 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 127 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 125/125/122 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 009/012-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 160.9 +7.7 |