Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 April 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0121Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 06/1243Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 123
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 125/125/128
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  006/005-006/005-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%40%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-83nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.11

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