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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/0222Z from Region 3663 (N26W03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 03/0418Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 02/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
02/2317Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (05 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (06 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 156 Predicted 04 May-06 May 158/155/160 90 Day Mean 03 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 024/056 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 013/015-014/020-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 75% | 79% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 162 +13.2 |