Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
04/0619Z from Region 3663 (N26W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06
May, 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 03/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (06 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 167 Predicted 05 May-07 May 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 04 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 016/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 014/020-024/035-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 79% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 175.7 +9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 164.2 +19.1 |