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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1120Z from Region 3697 (S18E35). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 31/1819Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 31/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M75%75%75%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 179
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        31 May 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  018/025-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm35%05%01%
Major-severe storm25%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm75%25%20%

All times in UTC

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