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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/2057Z from Region 3664 (S18E52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 02/1802Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 02/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 02/1354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (03 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 May, 04 May)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (05 May).
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 65% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 142 Predicted 03 May-05 May 135/132/132 90 Day Mean 02 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 024/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 023/040-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/27 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| December 2024 | 98 -68.4 |
| Last 30 days | 133.6 -27.6 |