Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/2346Z from Region 3654 (S07W63). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (03 May)
and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04
May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 01/0431Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 01/0552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 55% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 135 Predicted 02 May-04 May 134/130/132 90 Day Mean 01 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 016/020-015/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
sun goes blank 71Space Weather Memes 566Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209AR13889 143Northern Lights long term prediction 3
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 170.8 +4.3 |
| Last 30 days | 165.1 +20.3 |