Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 30 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0114Z from Region 3654 (S07W63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (01 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on day two (02 May) and expected to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day three (03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 29/2235Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 30/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/2033Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 55% | 45% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 130 Predicted 01 May-03 May 140/136/132 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 014/018-016/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |