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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
27/0708Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29
May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 27/0144Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0416Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| Class M | 55% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 170 Predicted 28 May-30 May 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 27 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 008/008-009/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 175.7 +9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 164.2 +19.1 |