Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/1706Z from Region 3691 (N29E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May,
29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 26/0019Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May)
and quiet levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 156 Predicted 27 May-29 May 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 26 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |