Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/2209Z from Region 3576 (S16W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2318Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
17/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0224Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0515Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 170 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 165/162/160 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |