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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/1935Z from Region 3559 (N27E22). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 21/0246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23
Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 179 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 018/030-024/035-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |