Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
05/1125Z from Region 3598 (S11W88). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (06 Mar) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 04/2237Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 142 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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