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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0132Z from Region 3625 (N13W78). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s at 01/0252Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 31/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 125 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 124/126/130 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 008/008-009/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |