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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/2116Z from old Region 3515. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 31/1154Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 30/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
31/0012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 233 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 134 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 008/010-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/19 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 157.7 +21.2 |
| Last 30 days | 169.2 +51.4 |