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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/0453Z from Region 3647 (S13E00). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 19/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 19/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 19/1549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Apr, 22
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Apr,
21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 213 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 024/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 007/010-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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