Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/0248Z from Region 3638 (S18E03). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 530 km/s at 18/0613Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
17/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (20 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Apr).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 227 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 007/006-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
Latest news
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Large Coronal Hole 25 169AR4043 21Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1647Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 45Photographing auroras 36
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
16:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 16:05 UTC
15:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 14:59 UTC
09:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 08:59 UTC
06:27 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 54GW at 07:01 UTC
06:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 05:51 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/27 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/26 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 132.3 -22.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.2 -21.8 |