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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/1358Z from Region 3614 (N17E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 22/0702Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2148Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (24 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 198 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 195/190/188 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/005-011/016-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 45% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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