Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2255Z from Region 3615 (S12E39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar,
24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 21/1517Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 21/0241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 21/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet levels
on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 197 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 180/178/174 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 012/015-005/005-011/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 10% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTFairbanks, AK
Latest news
Tuesday, 15 April 2025
CME arrival, G3 storm watch
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
The magnetic latitude problem 6AR 4055 111Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2311Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 372Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1800
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Tuesday, 22 April 2025
11:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.35 flare
10:39 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.03)
Monday, 21 April 2025
20:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 20:33 UTC
18:57 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.99 flare
18:39 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.93)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/22 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/21 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 121 -13.2 |
| Last 30 days | 113 -27.2 |