Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/2004Z from Region 3638 (S17E15). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 16/2135Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 16/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Apr,
19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 217 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 210/200/190 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 017/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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