Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X8 event observed at
14/1651Z from Region 3664 (S19, L=349). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (15 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 14/1404Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 120 pfu at 14/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 988 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 75% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 25% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 220 Predicted 15 May-17 May 205/195/180 90 Day Mean 14 May 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 024/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 015/018-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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