Viewing archive of Monday, 13 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
13/0944Z from Region 3664 (S19W87). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (14 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 891 km/s at 12/2242Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 12/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/2151Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 13/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 754 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (14 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 80% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 25% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 215 Predicted 14 May-16 May 215/200/190 90 Day Mean 13 May 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 031/054 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 028/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 018/026-015/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 70% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/21 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 141.7 -9.5 |