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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0701Z from Region 3697 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Jun, 11 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (12 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 08/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1219Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 128 pfu at 08/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Proton | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 181 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 020/035-015/020-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |