Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 June 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
08/0149Z from Region 3697 (S17W72). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 08/1946Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 08/0535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0038Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1028 pfu at 08/0800Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 08/0625Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (09
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 190 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 190/175/175 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 020/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 009/010-020/035-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 80% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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