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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/0913Z from Region 3709 (S10E74). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 07/0132Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/1402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 184 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 185/185/170 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 019/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 013/015-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |