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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/2159Z from Region 3685 (S13E29). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (21 May,
22 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 20/0308Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/0228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 May, 23 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 200 Predicted 21 May-23 May 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 20 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 015/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 014/016-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |