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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0741Z from Region 3729 (S05W26). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul,
06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 03/1748Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (06 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 167 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |